WASHINGTON—The US warning to Russia couldn’t have been plainer: Two weeks before the deadliest attack in Russia in years, Americans had publicly and privately advised President Vladimir Putin’s government that “extremists” had “imminent plans” for just such slaughter.
In this photo released by Russian Emergency Ministry Press Service on March 23, 2024, firefighters work in the burned concert hall after an attack on the building of the Crocus City Hall on the western edge of Moscow, Russia. A little-known US intelligence principle called the “duty to warn” came into play ahead of the deadly attack on Moscow’s outskirts. US officials invoked that duty when warning Russian officials a full two weeks before Friday’s attack.
“We had a duty to warn them of information that we had, clearly that they didn’t have. We did that,” Kirby said. Putin’s public reaction was dismissive. Three days before the attack, he condemned what he called “provocative statements” from the West about possible attacks within Russia. Such warnings were aimed at intimidating Russians and destabilizing the country, he said.The US emphasis on sharing threat warnings increased after al-Qaeda’s August 7, 1998 attacks on the US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania.
Strategic US dissemination of intelligence hit a high point in the months before Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. That’s when the US opted to declassify key intelligence on Russia’s invasion plans to rally allies and Ukraine, and—unsuccessfully—to pressure Russia to call off its troops.
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