US-Iran tensions threaten the world’s most important oil-shipping route

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US-Iran tensions threaten the world’s most important oil-shipping route
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In 2016, the waterway carried some 19m barrels of crude and other petroleum products a day

THE STRAIT of Hormuz, a narrow stretch of water connecting the Persian Gulf to the rest of the world’s oceans, has long been recognised as the most important choke-point for global oil supplies. Accounting for about a third of the world’s sea-borne oil , the strait links oil and gas producers in the Middle East with consumers around the globe, including those in Europe, Asia and America.

The risk of such an event is growing, and oil prices are rising as a result. In May last year, President Donald Trump pulled out of a nuclear deal with Iran and reimposed crippling sanctions on the country. Hassan Rouhani, Iran’s president, responded by threatening to block oil shipments; if Iran could not export oil, nor could others. Tensions have escalated further in recent days. On June 13th two ships were attacked in the Gulf of Oman.

One interpretation of the recent attacks on ships—if they were carried out by Iran, as America claims—is that they are intended to signal Iran’s readiness to act on its threat to block the waterway. The country could try to block the strait using speed boats, anti-ship missiles and mines. But doing so would probably be a desperate act of last resort. Iran would be risking a war with America and its regional allies.

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