US: FOMC will be cautious in reading too much into the magnitude of January's NFP – Wells Fargo – by MSalordFX NFP Banks
rose by 517K in January, well above market consensus. The numbers triggered a rally of the US dollar. Analysts at Wells Fargo point out that there is still plenty of additional economic data between now and the March FOMC meeting, including another employment report and two more CPI reports, but they argue that even after accounting for the flattering seasonal effect on January payrolls, the report argues for the Fed to stay in a hawkish mood.
“We suspect members of the FOMC will be cautious in reading too much into the magnitude of January's payroll gain, but the firm pace of average hourly earnings growth and a 53-year low in the unemployment rate should keep a 25 bps rate hike at the March 22 FOMC as the base case and another possible increase in May in play.”
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