The US Dollar (via DXY Index) is falling in the wake of the July US inflation report as US Treasury yields and Fed rate hike odds drop. The DXY Index has lost support at the uptrend from the late-March and late-May swing lows.
The rally by USD/JPY rates from the area around the April and May highs has ended, with a bearish outside engulfing bar forming on the daily chart today. Momentum is rapidly shifting more bearish. The pair is below its daily 5-, 8-, 13-, and 21-EMAs, which are now in bearish sequential order. Daily MACD is continuing its move below its signal line while daily Slow Stochastics have reversed back below their median line. A return to the August low at 130.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests USD/JPY prices may continue to rise. Positioning is less net-short than yesterday but more net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed USD/JPY trading bias.
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