The US Dollar has reached its highest level since 2017 as the Fed is on the cusp of a series of aggressive rates hikes. US Treasury yields have outpaced their EU, Asian counterparts, pushing out interest rate differentials.
USD/JPY rates have had an incredible run higher over the past two months, not having tested their daily 21-EMA since the first week of March. Although the setback in recent days has eroded momentum indicators – daily MACD is trending lower and daily Slow Stochastics have dropped from overbought territory – it appears that a bull flag is being carved out. As such, traders may look to the
decision as a catalyst to spur a bullish breakout of the flag; a move above 128.90 may signal the resumption of the uptrend, ultimately eying a test of 130.00 for the first time since March 2002.USD/JPY: Retail trader data shows 29.87% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 2.35 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 27.62% higher than yesterday and 19.86% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 1.07% lower than yesterday and 1.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests USD/JPY prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current USD/JPY price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.
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