Momentum in the U.S. and Chinese economies will determine if calls for higher prices in...
A Southwest Airlines jet takes off at Hobby Airport on Friday. U.S. holiday travel could move the needle on oil, one analyst says, particularly since jet fuel demand is at its highest since 2019.The oil market is shifting from geopolitical risk and toward fundamentals, where momentum in the U.S. and Chinese economies will determine if calls for higher prices in the second half of the year are justified, analysts said.
July marks the start of a unilateral cut of 1 million barrels per day from Saudi Arabia, though Bill Weatherburn, a commodities analyst at Capital Economics, said that’s largely been shrugged off and that raw economic data is driving the price of oil. First-time jobless claims came in lower than expected last week in the U.S. economy, though Weatherburn is waiting for more comprehensive data from June.
That’s incentive enough to keep the bulls tamed in the oil market given that rate hikes create economic headwinds. For Tamas Varga, an analyst at London oil broker PVM, the focus is clearly on oil demand. With the July 4 holiday, data are out a day later than usual, on Thursday. In the short-term, Ole Hanson, head of commodities strategy at Saxo Bank in Denmark, said U.S. holiday travel could move the needle, particularly since jet fuel demand is at its highest since 2019. It could be a record-setting year for travel, according to AAA, and most of that could be in the air, provided bottlenecks and staffing shortages don’t lead to widespread cancellations.
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