Turkey is struggling to support the ailing lira, which has lost more than 40% of...
LONDON - Turkey is struggling to support the ailing lira, which has lost more than 40% of its value over the past two years, and with foreign currency reserves running low, investors are trying to map out Ankara’s options for turning the tide.
If foreign investment grinds to a halt and hard cash buffers disappear, Turkey has only limited options without simply building large current account surpluses that may require a much deeper and longer domestic recession.Ankara’s borrowing costs have shot up but it is nowhere near locked out of international capital markets yet.
“If the sovereign wants to print tomorrow, they can — just at elevated levels,” said one senior banker. But few lenders can match the IMF’s firepower, the credibility of its checks and balances and the assurance its involvement offers for overseas investors. Some have speculated European Union countries individually or the bloc as a whole could be lending a hand, keen to contain any fallout from a Turkey crisis through close trade and banking channels. Yet European engagement on a large scale such as the Greece bailout has been linked to an IMF program, and there is little political momentum to provide money on a larger scale.
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