The latest leader to visit Ukraine, President Erdogan of Turkey has geographic, economic and security reasons to try to head off a conflict.
“We would never want a war between Russia and Ukraine,” Erdogan said in a speech Tuesday in northeastern Turkey. “I hope we can resolve this peacefully.” His trip comes after an unsuccessful effort to host the Ukrainian and Russian leaders for a mediation meeting, followed by a solo invitation to Putin. The Russian leader responded coolly, saying through a spokesperson that he would visit Erdogan “once the coronavirus situation and their work schedules allow.
In the current confrontation with Ukraine and NATO, Erdogan has been even more constrained because of domestic concerns: He faces an election next year amid a dire domestic economic crisis. Russia has the power to make matters worse by canceling flights carrying the hordes of Russian tourists that visit Turkey each year or banning Turkish agricultural products — measures Putin has used in the past to signal displeasure.
While the Montreux Convention affirms freedom of passage for commercial vessels, it limits the number, tonnage, armaments and length of stay of military vessels of states not bordering the Black Sea. During the Obama administration, Turkey refused to allow LNG tankers to pass through the straits, effectively scuttling a proposal to construct an LNG terminal in Odessa, Ukraine. Turkey said such shipping could be vulnerable to missile attack and was thus a security concern.
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