The administration’s emerging strategy indicates negotiators are putting political gains on agriculture ahead of a comprehensive deal.
The Japanese space agency recently landed a spacecraft on a miniscule asteroid traveling nearly 14,000 miles per hour relative to Earth. Many observers have concluded that it will take a similar feat to land the U.S.-Japan trade agreement negotiations expected to kick off in the next several weeks. Congress and the private sector have been pushing for a traditional, comprehensive agreement covering all trade topics.
The administration has been signaling since last July that it might take this approach, when it first broached the idea of a two-stage approach to negotiating a trade agreement in the context of talks with the European Union. The U.S. announcement last September of negotiations with Japan likewise referred to seeking an agreement that can produce “early achievements” on goods and other key areas, to be followed by talks on additional matters.
Under these circumstances, how can the administration hope to succeed in a two-stage approach? A clue might lie in how the administration recently negotiated modifications to the U.S.-Korea Free Trade Agreement. In the Korean deal, the U.S. specifically avoided topics that would involve legislative changes requiring approval from Capitol Hill, instead including several commitments only affecting the Korean side.
Japan would of course like to avoid these duties, but it also has resisted a solution that would replace duties with quotas, which has been the Trump administration’s preferred alternative. Still, with more than $40 billion of passenger vehicle exports at risk, Japan, like others before them, might agree to some limits.
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