President Donald Trump remains a “slight favorite” for reelection even in the shadow of a potential impeachment, Eurasia Group said on Tuesday.
President Donald Trump remains a “slight favorite” for reelection even in the shadow of a potential impeachment, Eurasia Group said on Tuesday, bolstered by an ardent political base and a surprisingly robust economy.
However, the clutch of 9 to 13 states suggest Trump is “well positioned” for 2020, and give him a narrow edge despite job approval ratings that lag below 50%, and mounting political troubles dominating the headlines, Eurasia Group’s Todd Mariano found. “An initial analysis reinforces our appraisal that Trump enters the 2020 presidential election as a slight favorite,” Mariano wrote. “According to this data set, Trump does not need net positive approval ratings to have a strong chance at remaining in the White House.”
Yet Trump prevailed in 2016, largely because most analysts were more focused on national polls instead of state-by-state readings of the electorate. “The state of the economy is a critical variable for any incumbent seeking reelection, but even more so for Trump,” Eurasia’s Mariano found.
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