There's a popular betting website that shows the likelihood of political events — here's what it says about Trump's impeachment odds
PredictIt is run by Victoria University in New Zealand for educational purposes, according to its, which says it uses real money to give users some stake in their bets and improve the research value of the bets — and because "real money is fun too."
Bets on the website that the Senate would convict Trump were trading at $0.10 on Thursday, which translates to users forecasting a 10% chance that the Senate votes to convict. There's an 83% chance that Trump completes his first term, according to a bet on the site. Another bet says there's a 10% chance the president resigns during his first term.
Other bets speculate about how some wildcard senators — either because of political ideology or electoral vulnerability — could vote in Trump's impeachment trial. Bets that another Republican, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, would vote to convict
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