Rather than approach the information as a valuable tool or a moment to reevaluate, Trump reportedly told his aides to deny that the internal polling existed
Photo: Mark Wilson/Getty Images Last week, a report leaked of a briefing in which President Trump learned of his team’s own polling showing he trails Joe Biden in 11 states vital to his 2020 election strategy. .
When that didn’t work, Trump nixed the pollsters who provided him with the news. According to the New York Times, Trump aides have spent the last week or so trying to determine the source of the leak. Per the codes of the current White House, this made the problem worse: “Aides violated a long-held unofficial rule of campaigns not to comment publicly on internal polling, even if the numbers leak.
Trump, a stickler for one-way loyalty, has reportedly retained two poll experts who’ve been around since at least 2016. Tony Fabrizio, a pickup by Paul Manafort who worked on some of his efforts in Ukraine, has stayed on, despite an incident in 2016 when the Trump campaign tried to stiff him on a $767,000 bill for his services. John McLaughlin, who did unofficial work for Trump when he flirted with a run in 2011, will stay on as well.
It’s easy to see why Trump tried to dismiss the release of the information as “fake polls.” In Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — states vital to the president’s 2016 win and his 2020 strategy — Trump was behind Biden by double-digits. Voters in Georgia, a reliably red state, favored Biden by six points. Voters in Minnesota, which Trump has targeted as an aspirational state, seem beyond reach, as he’s down 14 points.
In an immediate sense, these general polls are alarming for the president: His own team determined that his map to reelection could lead nowhere. But generals over a year out from the big day are historically worthless as a method of prediction, as FiveThirtyEight addressed in 2015: “If you look at polls that tested the eventual Democratic and Republican nominees in the last two months of the year before the election, the average absolute error of the polling average is 10.6 percentage points.
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