The defining challenge of Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's second term is to prove that his government, which has made fighting climate change central to its brand, can make good on its promises without making more enemies
OTTAWA — When Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau came to power in 2015, he promised a grand bargain: his Liberal government would fight climate change with a carbon tax, but would also get Canadian oil to new markets in Asia. One would buy the social license for the other.
But there's no easy path forward for Trudeau, who faces tough decisions about the future of the country’s oil-and-gas industry and concerns from Western Canada that he wants to shut it down. When the Liberals were reelected last October, they’d lost all their seats in oil-rich Alberta and Saskatchewan, a sign of deepening regional divisions. Trudeau now needs to figure out how much, and how quickly, Canadians actually want climate action.
The decision, coming as it does at the start of Trudeau’s second term, will be taken as a sign of the Liberals’ true colors on climate change and resource development. If they don’t approve it, they’ll be accused of trying to phase out the oil sands. If they do, they’ll be accused of not being serious about reducing emissions, especially after their 2018 decision to buy a controversial oil pipeline project that’s currently under construction.
“There is kind of an industry of trying to make this into a litmus test,” a government source told POLITICO. “I’m not sure that it actually is.” Arguably, though, Trudeau’s bigger problem is that Canada is not on track to achieve its own goals, with or without the Frontier mine. Despite the federal carbon tax, which came into effect last spring in provinces that didn’t have their own, Canada is still projected to miss its 2030 emissions target under the Paris Agreement by 77 megatonnes, and doesn’t have a clear plan to make up the gap.
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