Analysts are looking at everything from transport to social-media activity to understand how the coronavirus is affecting America's economy
about the impact of the covid-19 virus, financial markets have slumped. Now there are signs that the virus is moving from traders’ screens to the real economy. No one will know the true economic impact for some time, because official statistics are published with a lag: the first estimate ofgrowth in the current quarter, for instance, will not appear until April 29th. Analysts cannot wait that long.
It is not all doom and gloom. So far there are few indications—either from weekly jobless claims or from company announcements—that joblessness is rising. Worries that broken supply chains would stoke inflation also look overdone, for now at least. Data to the beginning of March from State Street PriceStats Indicators, which measures inflation daily, suggest that inflation has been on a steady downward trend since the beginning of the year . Railway and trucking volumes appear to be holding up.
Household spending is taking a big hit, however. Analysis by Goldman Sachs, a bank, of Twitter posts suggests that consumer confidence has dropped. People are nervous of crowds—and some 40% of household spending is vulnerable to people shunning gatherings, according to calculations byGoogle searches for “restaurant reservations” are way down. Theat San Francisco’s best oyster bar was so pleased to see a customer that he offered a free plate of them when your correspondent bought a drink .
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