Free picks for MLB prop bets on September 5, swinging at today's MLB props and giving our best MLB prop picks, predictions, and baseball bets.
One of my most significant values on the board involved this late-night game between the Philadelphia Phillies and San Diego Padres. I priced this at -138, and I'm gladly grabbing it at plus money.
Pedro Avila has eclipsed his 4.5 K line just thrice over his last nine games, but tonight, he gets a matchup similar to those three teams he's exceeded. The Phillies rank eighth in swing rate — sitting close to the Colorado Rockies — whom he struck out seven times at the start of August. The Phillies have the fourth-highest chase rate in baseball, and the team right next to them? You guessed it, the Colorado Rockies, who sit third in that metric.
Avila has a chase rate that's in the top half of baseball. It's not an elite skill set, but it's certainly something he does well. He's only been pitching since the end of June, so the data size is smaller but still useful. Avila should get plenty of swings outside the zone here from free-swinger batters like Kyle Schwarber, Brandon Marsh, and others. It should be enough to get him Over what is a freely low total and attractive at plus money.
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