When Kyle Shanahan runs out of planned plays, things go south for the Niners, according to FiveThirtyEight's data on expected points added.
, expected points added is a measurement of “how many points a player or play is worth to a team.”
It might seem obvious to blame quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo for the Niners' struggles on offense. But last season, when Jimmy G was also quarterback, the team was ranked much higher in EPA, at No. 7 in the league, perWhat it comes down to is scripted plays, according to FiveThirtyEight. Teams will typically start each game with a script of about 12 plays that they will call for the first few drives to establish the gameplan and feel out the defense.
But the data from FiveThirtyEight suggests that the 49ers offense is worse once the gameplan script runs out. This season, when the Niners run the scripted plays, the team averages a positive 0.15 EPA. When they're running unscripted plays, the team is averaging a negative 0.11 EPA. This is the largest discrepancy of the stat in Shanahan’s tenure as Niners head coach, FiveThirtyEight's data found.
It is worth noting that injuries to players are not taken into account for these stats. For example, Trent Williams, the All-Pro left tackle for the red and gold, missed multiple weeks with an ankle injury. On Friday, news broke that star receiverwas ruled out of this weekend’s matchup versus the Los Angeles Rams, whom the Niners have beaten seven times in a row during the regular season.
This is all to say that stats aren’t perfect. The numbers don’t always tell the whole story. But FiveThirtyEight does note, deliciously, that the same year there was a precipitous drop in the Niners' EPA is the first year in which Shanahan doesn't have Mike McDaniel behind him as offensive coordinator or assistant.
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