As air pollution decreases in the western Northern Hemisphere, several new climate simulations suggest tropical cyclones in the Atlantic may increase. The forecast is troubling, though not necessarily a surprise.
Broadly speaking, that's opposite to the impact of greenhouse gasses, which trap energy from the Sun in our atmosphere and warm our planet.
Over the past 40 years, international weather and pollution data show that aerosol control measures in Europe and the United States have seen pollution levels drop significantly. As aerosol particles in Europe and the US fell, the simulations suggest the mid-latitudes of the North Atlantic would have warmed. This, in turn, would have triggered a poleward shift in the subtropical jets, which reduces vertical wind shear and increases tropical cyclone activity.Aerosols aren't the only factors in our planet's atmosphere that impact the frequency and severity of hurricanes, but the results suggest they do play a significant role.
Simulations suggest the dimming effect of all that pollution cooled temperatures and weakened monsoon circulation in the tropical western North Pacific. From 2000 to 2020, tropical cyclone activity decreased by 14 percent compared to the 20 previous years.
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