According to the UN the chance of a 15-year-old boy dying by the age of 50 is now higher in America than in Bangladesh
is the world’s most important watcher of human tides. Its demographers have a good record of predicting global population change, although they have made mistakes about individual countries. So it is worth paying attention when theRecent revisions have sent the projected global population upwards. The one released on June 17th cuts it back. Thenow thinks the world will contain a little over 9.7bn people in 2050 and just under 10.9bn in 2100.
Birth rates are falling faster than expected in some developing countries. In the late 1980s Kenya had a fertility rate of 6.5, implying a woman could expect to have that many children. Two years ago thereckoned Kenya’s fertility rate would drop to 2.1 only in the late 2070s. Because of new data, it now thinks Kenya will reach that point a decade earlier. Uganda also looks less fecund.
Another change has to do with death. Most people are living longer. The biggest improvement is in east and southern Africa, whereis being treated better. In America, however, the opioid epidemic has pushed up the death rate, especially for men. The chance of a 15-year-old boy dying by the age of 50 is now higher in America than in Bangladesh. It would be nice if the American forecast, at least, proved to be too pessimistic.
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