Heard on the Street: One tariff man alone—even the U.S. president—can only do so much
By Nathaniel Taplin Nov. 25, 2019 6:21 am ET China-U.S. tensions may not matter for global trade as much as investors seem to think.
China was losing global export market share before the trade war, and it still is, at about the same pace. U.S. global export market share, after a long decline in the early 2000s, stabilized at about 9% in the early postcrisis years. When President Trump began his tariff scrap with China in early 2018, it stood at 8.7% according to International Monetary Fund data. In the second quarter of 2019, it was still 8.7%.
One thing this picture shows is how difficult it is to hold China’s feet to the fire on trade without buy-in from allies. More fundamentally, it shows how dependent trade flows are on things besides tariffs, particularly exchange rates and long-term factors such as demographics and innovative capacity. China’s share of global exports peaked in 2015 at around 15% and has fallen, in more or less a straight line downward, since then. It currently clocks in around 13%.
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