The next Census will likely show that Vermont's long, slow population decline has begun. And that's not the only thing the state has in common with Europe: It's old, it's white, it's shrinking and it elects democratic socialists.
A pedestrian braves a snowy morning in Milton, Vt., where the population is 10,352, according to the 2010 Census. By Andrew Van Dam Andrew Van Dam Reporter focusing on economic data Email Bio Follow March 2 at 8:00 AM When we say Vermont is the most European state in the Union, we don’t mean it’s the whitest in terms of ancestry — though it vies with nearby Maine for that distinction.
Vermont is expected to lose people steadily until at least 2040, the most distant year the demographers dared predict. Vermont, Illinois and West Virginia are the only states that won’t hit new populations high over that time, according to the forecasts.Children under 15 make up a smaller share of the population in Vermont than in any other state . On the other end, it trails only Maine for the share of population 40 or older.
And higher education correlates with lower fertility. Separate Census Bureau figures show that, as of 2016, fertility among women between the ages of 15 and 44 with no more than a high school diploma is about 1.4 times higher than among women with a bachelor’s degree. In the 1970s, University of New Hampshire demographer Kenneth Johnson said, “a dramatic and surprising shift occurred when more people moved to rural areas.” For the first time in a century and a half, rural America grew faster than the nation’s cities.
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