You don’t need a conspiracy theory to see that just now the world’s mood is troubled
IN RECENT WEEKS the human and silicon brains at Google have registered an alarming rise in searches related to “recession”. It is easily explained. As markets gyrate, talk in the press turns to the risk of a slump. Even so, the stories must leave some Googlers baffled. In July, after all, the American economy added 164,000 jobs and retail sales kept climbing. President Donald Trump, too, is bemused.
But economic causation is rarely so clear-cut. Higher interest rates hurt some people but leave others better off or unaffected. The failure of a large manufacturer creates pain for workers and shareholders but opportunities for rivals, who can hoover up displaced labour and capital. Not all shocks lead to recessions. When they do, it is often because something goes wrong with an economy’s ability to roll with the punches: spending falls somewhere but is not offset by increases elsewhere.
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