Russia's military has performed poorly — and Ukraine has defied expectations. Will those trends hold? Here are experts' predictions for the path of the war in its second year.
When Russia attempted a rapid takeover a year ago, its military rumbled into Ukraine with huge stockpiles of hardware.says a key reason the Russians failed is that they didn't send enough troops to capture and hold large parts of Ukraine.
However, because Russia retreated from a good deal of Ukrainian territory last fall,"the Russian military substantially reduced the amount of territory they have to defend," he said."That means that as a military, they have far more force density. They have echelon lines. They have reserves." In the coming months, Ukraine will likely find it harder to locate and exploit Russian vulnerabilities, according to Alperovitch."I think it's going to be very difficult for the Ukrainians to make quick progress," he said."Unless the Russian line just collapses, I think it's going to be difficult to see the type of lightning offensives that we saw last year."
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