The Fed and the market, for now, are on the same page in expecting interest rates to hold steady for a while.
Economic expectations have changed at least somewhat for the better, making Fed policy perhaps a bit less predictable.
Galy sees the likelihood of two or three more cuts as well, which might not be enough to satisfy Trump, who has said he'd like to see the U.S. adopt the zero- and negative-rate regimes in Europe and Japan. Fed officials have expressed concern that global slowness could infect the U.S., and that inflation remains below the Fed's 2% target.
While the primary thinking is that any move would be lower in rates, Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at The Leuthold Group, holds a contrarian position, namely that better-than-expected growth could force the Fed into raising rates.
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