Investors are already hankering for more
set by the Federal Reserve have been rising since 2015. The gradual approach, explained the Fed’s chairman, Jerome Powell, last September, was intended to leave time to see how well the economy could absorb each raise. “So far the economy has performed very well, and very much in keeping with our expectations,” he said back then.
President Donald Trump’s trade war shows no signs of abating. The effects of the latest increase in tariffs, in mid-June, will take a few more months to become fully apparent in the data. On July 18th theupdated its World Economic Outlook, citing “subdued” global growth and a “precarious” projected pickup in 2020. Moreover, some of the economy’s recent resilience may have been in the expectation of the cut to come.
As Mr Powell finished speaking on July 31st, market prices reflected a 73% chance of a further cut of 0.25 percentage points this year. But he studiously avoided committing to anything more, saying that any further cuts would depend on both incoming data and “evolving risks to the outlook”.
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