For Daniel Ellsberg, the Pentagon Papers, the first excerpts of which were published on this day in 1971, were a case study in the hazards of decision-making under conditions of uncertainty.
Illustration by Gerald Scarfe
Ellsberg points out that there is much stronger evidence tying Nixon to the psychiatrist's-office break-in than to the Watergate burglary, and that the "smoking gun" tape that led to Nixon's resignation, in August, 1974, recorded Nixon approving a payment of hush money to the mastermind of the Ellsberg operation, E. Howard Hunt. Within less than a year, the American war in Vietnam was finally over.
But there are some obvious difficulties in looking for guidance about Iraq in Ellsberg's Vietnam narrative. Given the copious news leaks and op-ed skirmishes of the past six months, nobody could argue that if people only knew what kind of policy arguments were taking place inside the Administration we wouldn't be heading to war. Thanks in no small part to Daniel Ellsberg, the authority of official Washington no longer feels unitary and unquestionable.
There is no good reason to think that the chance of getting a red ball is any better in one urn than in the other, but Ellsberg found that people overwhelmingly chose the urn known to have fifty balls of each color. The person running the game would then say, "O.K., you think that urn is likelier to have a red ball; now I'm going to offer you a hundred dollars if you draw a black ball.
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