Bitcoin and gold have significantly decoupled, breaking the tight correlation dating from Feb 2022. Is this a sign things are breaking?
The below is an excerpt from a recent edition of Bitcoin Magazine Pro, Bitcoin Magazine's premium markets newsletter. To be among the first to receive these insights and other on-chain bitcoin market analysis straight to your inbox, Bitcoin and gold have similar inflation-hedge narratives. Currently, gold has a lower inflation rate than Bitcoin , but it will be a monumental flip at the halving. A simplistic inflation story would require gold and bitcoin to rise together.
Another piece of evidence that supports this bounce in CNY is seen in bitcoin. It too has been highly correlated to CNY, and this week’s bounce probably corresponds to a CNY bounce in shadow markets. There is also a pattern to the compression in spreads. Prior to the Great Financial Crisis and prior to COVID, as recession became more likely, spreads compressed. Today, we again see compression with only 24 bps separating all three.
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