New calculations show that the region is warming on average almost four times as fast as the rest of Earth.
To calculate the true pace of the accelerated warming, a phenomenon called
, the researchers analyzed observational data from 1979 to 2021 . Globally, the average temperature increase over that time was about 0.2 degrees Celsius per decade. But the Arctic was warming by about 0.75 degrees C per decade.Over the last four decades, the global average temperature increased by about 0.2 degrees Celsius per decade, but in the Arctic, the mean increase per decade was about 0.75 degrees Celsius .
Even the best climate models are not doing a great job of reproducing that warming, Rantanen and colleagues say. The inability of the models to realistically simulate past Arctic amplification calls into question how well the models can project future changes there. It’s not clear where the problem lies. One issue may be that the models are struggling with correctly simulating the sensitivity of Arctic temperatures to the loss of sea ice. Vanishing snow and ice, particularly sea ice, are one big reason why Arctic warming is on hyperspeed. The bright white snow and ice create a reflective shield that bounces incoming radiation from the sun back into space. But open ocean waters or bare rocks absorb that heat, raising the temperature.
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