Even if gross domestic product figures show a shrinking economy, a recession won’t officially have begun unless the National Bureau of Economic Research says so.
The stakes for the group are high, in part because of the extraordinarily unusual economic conditions two years after the last recession, early in the coronavirus pandemic. The economy contracted in the first quarter of the year, and many Republicans say a recession is here already, with Thursday’s release expected by many analysts to show a second consecutive quarter of negative growth.
The group’s calculus could become increasingly fraught in the following months, amid puzzling economic conditions that defy easy characterization. The political consequences for the committee could be significant, as the Biden administration faces growing public anger over high inflation and its economic stewardship.
As Deese told CNN: “In terms of the technical definition, it’s not a recession — the technical definition considers a much broader spectrum of data points.”Traditionally, all these various economic metrics move in tandem, making the committee’s job easier. Usually, when growth declines, so do employment, consumer activity and the other measures of economic health. But the economy since the start of the pandemic has confounded prior models and may do so again.
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