The most favorable political terrain for Republicans runs through three states that former President Donald Trump carried by at least 8 points in 2020 – West Virginia, Montana and Ohio.
The party, which currently holds a narrow 51-49 majority, must defend 23 of the 34 seats up for grabs this cycle. That means Republicans need a net gain of just one or two seats to retake the Senate, depending on which party wins the White House in 2024. In all three, Democrats have incumbents with unique political brands who could again have crossover appeal with voters in a reelection race.
While Sinema and Gallego could split votes and help the eventual GOP nominee, Democrats, for now, are happy to deflect to potential messiness on the GOP side. Republicans considering Senate bids include election deniers such as failed 2020 nominees Blake Masters, who lost a bid for Senate, and Kari Lake, who says last fall’s gubernatorial election was stolen from her.
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