This week was all about central banks with monetary policy meetings around the globe. In the US, the Fed maintained the policy rate unchanged at 5.25%
the Fed maintained the policy rate unchanged at 5.25%-5.50% as widely anticipated, but surprised hawkishly with higher median rate projections .
The median 'dots' were revised up by 50bp for both 2024 and 2025 which moved treasury yields higher. The higher projected policy rate was due to a large upward revision of the growth outlook for 2023 to 2.1% and 1.5% for 2024, while inflation forecasts only received minor adjustments. For more details, see as five members voted for a pause and four for a hike.
The central bank of Turkey increased the policy rate as expected while the Swiss National Bank surprised both analysts and markets by leaving the policy rate unchanged.The September PMIs showed that the euro area and UK economy ended Q3 in contraction as waning demand lead to a further decline in activity. The service sector surprised positively in the euro area and negatively in the UK but both remain below 50. Price pressures are still large in the service sectors as wages push up input costs.. Inflation drivers continue to paint a mixed picture, as price pressures from food and energy ease while underlying inflation still remains uncomfortably high for the Fed and ECB. In the US core PCE inflation is expected to print around 0.
Other relevant data releases next week are US jobless claims, durable goods orders and conference board consumer sentiment. We expect US volume to land around zero or even slightly negative. In the euro area, we receive money supply figures and Ifo figures from Germany.
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