Swing-state Arizona likely to return to historic role as Republican-leaning state

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Swing-state Arizona likely to return to historic role as Republican-leaning state
US News2024 Presidential ElectionArizona
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Arizona was one of the closest states in 2020, perhaps the epitome of the modern purple state. Recent trends and demographic analysis nonetheless suggest it’s

President Biden’s narrow, 10,457-vote margin in 2020 is merely the best-known example of what’s now a clear trend. Trump, however, won only 50% of those with only a four-year degree in 2020 and got clobbered 60-40 among graduate-degree holders.Arizona is also home to a large and growing Latino population. It cast 15% of the state’s vote in 2016 and gave Hillary Clinton a 30-point margin over Trump.

The latest available figures, from April, reveal they now total only 29.4%. Republicans, on the other hand, have slightly increased their share of registered voters, from 35.2% to 35.4%.The partisan balance has thus shifted 3 points in the GOP’s favor since Biden won by just 0.3%. Combined with its exurbs in Pinal County, the Phoenix metro area casts about two-thirds of the statewide total.

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