The Reserve Bank of India will increase its main interest rate by 25 basis points to 6.75% in April and then pause until the end of 2023, according to a Reuters poll of economists who also said risks were for the terminal rate to go even higher.
"The volatility in food prices is a bit of a concern right now, and we have to see what happens on that front for the overall inflation trajectory to be shaped. Core inflation... is problematically sticky at 6%. If it does not come below that, I think the job of the Reserve Bank of India is not done."
The survey also showed inflation was likely to remain sticky at 6.00% this quarter, higher than the RBI's forecast of 5.70%. Globally, persistent inflation is prompting major central banks to continue tightening monetary policy until price pressures are tamed. Over a third of survey respondents, however, said the RBI was already done with its policy tightening campaign, and the terminal rate would stay at 6.50% as the bank weighs the effects of earlier hikes.
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