A look at polling in an effort to answer a newly popular question.
Democrats came into 2020 traumatized by the party’s 2016 loss and by four years of Donald Trump’s hard-right presidency. The party internalized the idea that the key to beating Trump was doing better with blue-collar Midwestern Whites, and Biden was the natural guy to fill that gap. When you asked Democrats that year whom they planned to support, they wouldthat they preferred a non-Biden candidate to be the nominee — but that Biden seemed like the best bet to win.
In reality, the non-Biden Democratic candidate for president in 2024 would be Kamala D. Harris. Biden would have to step aside willingly for that to happen, which seems more possible now than it did earlier this week, though it still seems unlikely. The idea that this would then trigger some sophisticated, calm debate over a replacement that resulted in party unity is sophomoric. Harris is the vice president, the person already chosen by the party to be next in line for the presidency.
The question isn’t really how Harris fares against Trump, though we can answer that easily: Trump led her by six points in the Times poll and five points in the Fox News one. What’s important, instead, is how that compares to Biden. Biden trailed Trump in both those polls, too: by four points in each. So Harris fares only one or two points worse than Biden in polls with margins of sampling error that are much larger than that.
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