A coalition headed by former prime minister Robert Fico could hurt Europe’s unity on Ukraine.
A victory by Fico’s Smer party would be another sign of Europe’s tilt toward populist forces, which have capitalized on spiraling costs of living and anxiety over the Ukraine war. It could also turn an ally in the Western response to Ukraine into a spoiler, with Fico threatening to stop arms deliveries and block European Union sanctions against Russia.
A final IPSOS poll published Wednesday put support for Fico’s Smer party at 20.6 percent compared with 19.8 for Progressive Slovakia.Whoever comes out ahead will have the first chance at cobbling together a coalition government, amid a fractured political scene where no party is expected to win more than a quarter of the vote. Much could ride on a raft of smaller parties that are on the threshold of reaching the minimum of 5 percent of the vote needed to enter parliament.
“I don’t buy the completely gloomy scenarios if Fico makes a government,” said Milan Nic, an analyst with the German Council on Foreign Relations, who points out that Slovakia is more dependent on the E.U. than Hungary, while Fico is more consumed by investigations into his associates at home.
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