Modelling analyses of maternal mortality data for 200 countries and territories reveal that based on current trends, the maternal mortality Sustainable Development Goal targets for 2030 are unlikely to be met HarvardChanSPH
Our model projects that many countries will have an MMR above 140 in 2030, mostly in sub-Saharan Africa, with Africa estimated to have overtaken Asia since 2000 as the continent with the highest number of maternal deaths.
Although computationally intensive, the development of our structural model offers two major benefits over existing methods. First, the specification of causal relationships makes explicit all model assumptions, and provides the potential for more robust, detailed estimates of maternal health outcomes, because we can incorporate data for multiple indicators along the reproductive pathway that may be more accurately/frequently observed than maternal mortality.
In addition to the uncertainty around underreporting, we faced data limitations for other model parameters. Although we leveraged empirical data when available, we were not able to set informative priors for some parameters when calibrating the model. Additional research could therefore help to refine our assumptions and improve the precision of our estimates.
Although we account for indirect maternal deaths in the model as a proportion of competing mortality risks, we do not disaggregate indirect maternal deaths by cause , potentially limiting the utility of the model in evaluating interventions to address specific causes of indirect maternal deaths.
Structural modeling is a feasible approach to produce global and country-specific estimates of maternal mortality. On current trends, we find that many countries are not on track to achieve an MMR below 140 by 2030 and find large differences for country-specific estimates between the UN, GBD and GMatH models.
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