From COVID-19 to the war in Ukraine, virtual models could inform global food policy before emergencies unfold, says ZiaMehrabi
, extreme weather events and more. My colleagues and I scramble to find convincing answers quickly when development outfits, aid organizations and government think tanks come calling.
Historically, major food emergencies such as the global price crises of 1972–75 and 2007–08 have triggered leaps in food-system modelling. But efforts have been fragmented. Economists can create complex models of prices and trade for policy analysis, but with limited geospatial resolution. Agronomists have excellent high-resolution renderings of crop production and yield, but these typically stop at the farm gate.
Putting together these pieces will bring immense benefits, allowing near-real-time assessment of the impact of extreme weather, export restrictions or labour shortages. We will be able to model the effects of multiple simultaneous stressors — disease outbreaks, conflicts or energy shocks — and assess how long it would take to re-route flows to alternative ports, offset losses and buffer shocks.
Promoting data and model sharing will be key. Digital twins built behind closed doors by industry — particularly large commodity traders and the consultants and insurers that serve them — might not best serve the public interest or the resilience of the food system. Hoarding of privileged information is a real concern given increasing corporate power.
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