There are confusing signals about the economy but the market is too optimistic on earnings and rate cuts.
A surge of late provided by well-received results from mega-cap tech like Meta META and Microsoft MSFT may have been halted by talk of slowing growth in Amazon’s AMZN cloud business.
Yet, the message being sent to the Fed from the market is somewhat confusing reckons Michael Hartnett, investment strategist at Bank of America Securities. Oil “can’t catch a bid” despite recent OPEC supply cuts and big a U.S. inventory drawdown. Taiwan, the world’s biggest chip maker recorded industrial production down 15% in March — traditionally a good global recession indicator — while China’s imports have started to decline despite the recent post-COVID reopening.
Still, the strategist remains bearish, as he predicts the “economic ambiguity of 2023” will end with cracks in the jobs market and an earnings recession. Try your hand at the Barron’s crossword puzzle and sudoku games, now running daily along with a weekly digital jigsaw based on the week’s cover story. To see all puzzles, click here.
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