Vladimir Putin’s United Russia party won decisively. Had the votes been counted fairly, however, the tally would have been quite different
went to the polls last month to elect a new State Duma, the outcome was never in doubt. In the months leading up to the three-day parliamentary vote, opposition politicians were jailed, barred from running or forced into exile. The Kremlin labelled media outlets and journalists critical of the government as “foreign agents”. Political organisations linked to Alexei Navalny, President Vladimir Putin’s main political rival, were branded “extremist” and banned from participating.
Such electoral shenanigans have gone on for decades. Messrs Kobak and Shpilkin estimate that 1,700 polling stations returned statistically anomalous results in the Russian presidential election in 2018; 3,600 did so in the constitutional referendum in 2020. When all 11 Russian federal elections since 2000 are shown on a scatter plot, with turnout on the x-axis and the vote share of the ruling United Russia party on the y-axis, the fraud is visible to the naked eye.
As Russia prepares for presidential elections in 2024, many expect the current voting system, which is conducted mainly by paper ballot, to be replaced by an all-electronic format. But fraud is likely to persist. In several races last month in Moscow, where nearly 2m votes were cast online, Kremlin-backed candidates were losing until online votes were included, at which point they surged ahead.
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