Russia has averted a historic debt default since sanctions were imposed on its foreign currency reserves, but analysts believe it is delaying the inevitable.
In a note last week, MSCI Research said that despite the rally,"probabilities of default implied by the credit-default-swap market were still exceptionally high across the one- and five-year horizons."
"As of May 3, the default probability was 67% over one year, down from over 95% on April 26. Over the same period, the five-year default probabilities fell from 99% to 88%."Russia has benefited from an exemption in U.S. sanctions that allows bond payments to be made on Russian sovereign debt from sources authorized by the Treasury on a case-by-case basis.
"Alternatively, extending the exemption could provide additional payments to bondholders as long as the Russian government signals a willingness and ability to continue making payments," MSCI added. The Treasury has not yet indicated whether it plans on extending this exemption. Ash agreed that the key question now is whether the U.S. Office of Foreign Assets Control will extend the general license for foreign debt service beyond May 25.
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