Russia is poised to temporarily shut down the European Union’s single biggest piece of gas import infrastructure.
Russia has reduced its gas flows to Europe by about 60%, and it is not yet known when or if Nord Stream 1 gas flows will return to normal levels. Gazprom has cited the delayed return of equipment serviced by Germany's Siemens Energy in Canada for its reduced flows via the pipeline.
Eurasia Group said that if Putin orchestrated a total cut-off of gas supplies beyond the scheduled end of maintenance works on the Nord Stream 1 pipeline — in what Gloystein described as a"maximum economic warfare" scenario — Germany would likely be forced to move to level three of its three-stage emergency gas plan."Germany has become a hotspot for the entire EU," Gloystein said.
"That is actually why though … we think Russia will return a little bit," Gloystein said."They want a little bit of a bargaining chip in case the Europeans tighten the sanctions further so then the Russians can retaliate with that."Russian President Vladimir Putin attends the IX Forum of the Regions of Russia and Belarus via a video link in Moscow, on July 1, 2022.
Maintaining at least some flows would also allow Russia to benefit from high prices and to retain the option of more drastic cut-offs later in the year, Gloystein said, potentially in retaliation forGerman grid data shows that in previous years, Russian gas flows via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline have returned by the end of July following summer maintenance works.
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