Risk for USD more likely to be on downside – Commerzbank Inflation UnitedStates Fed DollarIndex Banks
USD? In the view of economists at Commerzbank, it seems increasingly difficult for USD to appreciate further.“It is expected that the next Fed meeting will provide another 75bp hike so it should be difficult for expectations to rise further than that. For that to happen inflation would have to be terrifyingly high, which seems unlikely though.”
“The Fed is likely to stick to its course despite a lower overall inflation rate and should continue its determined fight against inflation. The fall in the headline rate might nonetheless fuel speculation on the markets that the end of the rate hike cycle in the US might have been reached soon, which could principally put pressure on USD. As a result, we see the downside risk in USD dominating today.”is also likely to play an important role.
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