Republican Jeff Landry and Democrat Shawn Wilson will likely go to a runoff.
The first round of the Louisiana governor election is on Oct. 14.Louisiana is undoubtedly a red state. But in 2015 and 2019, it went against the grain by electing and reelecting Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards. As a result, Louisiana — which former President Donald Trumpin 2020 — is the second-most Republican-leaning state with a Democratic governor, behind only Kentucky.
Across four polls conducted in August and September, Landry led by double-digit margins over Wilson, while no other candidate reached 10 percent. Now, each poll had a fair number of undecided voters, and we’ve seen no new public polling since mid-September, so there remains some uncertainty about just how this will play out.
Landry has led this race in pretty much all departments. As of Sept. 24, he’d raised $9.3 million in 2023, which built on the $5 million he already had in the bank at the start of the year. In turn, he’s spent $9.7 million this year, more than three times as much as his nearest opponent. Landry also has many high-profile endorsements,But none of this has kept the other candidates from trying to shake up the race.
Looking ahead to a likely runoff matchup between Landry and Wilson, the GOP almost certainly has the upper hand. We’ve seen two polls in the past two months that tested the two head-to-head, and Landry had double-digit leads in both. In mid-September,Landry up 54 percent to 36 percent in a survey for a consortium of Louisiana media outlets and nonprofit groups. Landry has a huge financial edge, too, as he.
This is not to say that something couldn’t change the course of the race. But barring something unexpected, Landry will be favored should the race go to a runoff. He could even win outright on Saturday if he significantly outruns his polls.
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