Trump thrived with the media spotlight on Biden\'s flailing campaign. If Harris is the nominee, he might not be so lucky.
U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris arrives for an NCAA championship teams celebration on the South Lawn of the White House on July 22, 2024, in Washington, D.C.Trump declared that he believed Vice President Kamala Harris, the most likely Democratic nominee, would be easier to beat
First off, Trump’s supposed strength is more a product of Biden’s weakness than of a sudden lovefest a majority of Americans are having with the impeached, found-liable-for-sexual-assault MAGA leader. Put simply, there is no lovefest. This became even more evident after he was shot by a sniper in Pennsylvania — a situation which has, historically, seen the surviving political figure benefit from a surge of popular good will.
Some pundits were quick to point out that there really wasn’t much of a difference in the polling between how Biden matched up against Trump and how Harris matches up against Trump — and to a degree that’s true. In an average of recent polls, Biden trailed Trump by about 2 percent, andThese polls, however, obscure more than they illuminate. After the debate debacle, it was clear that Biden’s campaign was in a death spiral, one that he should have recognized weeks ago.
Harris, by contrast, will enter the race with her campaign on an upward trajectory. If Biden trailing Trump by 2 percent seemed a pinnacle for the current president, from which he would only continue to tumble, Harris’s 1.5 percent deficit seems a baseline.
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