The 'office apocalypse' won't doom big cities — it's actually making them stronger
The exodus of workers is also leading to a dire outlook for a cornerstone of these downtowns: their office towers. An academic paper titled"" drew a lot of attention in late 2022. The authors found that the value of New York City's commercial real estate declined by 44.8% between December 2019 and December 2020.
This office downturn isn't limited to the Big Apple. The total square footage leased — a measure of how many businesses are renting out office space — across 14 major US real-estate markets. While vacancy rates are up, sales of office buildings are down. In a typical year, roughly $11 billion worth of office space trades hands, but in 2022 this collapsed to $3.5 billion. Sales volume has declined by 83% from its peak in 2016.
The empty office towers are already setting off alarm bells for leaders in major metro areas. New York City's mayor, Eric Adams, has been, arguing that workers shouldn't"stay home in your pajamas all day!" Adams has expressed concerns that permanent declines in the city's public-transit use, retail vibrancy, and tax-base revenue would undermine his administration's ability to provide basic public services.
."But the fact of the matter is there will never be the good ol' days where everyone's downtown working."Despite the doom and gloom over these cities' prospects, the emerging day of reckoning for cities such as New York, San Francisco, and Seattle can also be an opportunity. Nick Bloom, a
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