Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s June meeting at which rates were held steady pointed to rate increases in 2023, maybe as soon as this month.
... [+]Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s June meeting at which rates were held steady pointed to higher rates this year, with perhaps the. The Fed acknowledges that inflation has come down since mid 2022, but worries that it may remain stuck well above the Fed’s 2% target. Essentially without signs that core inflation is coming down, the Fed is likely to maintain restrictive monetary policy. More hikes could be coming.
continue to imply a recession may occur. The Fed also thinks that the “very tight” labor market is encouraging, and in fact, some softening of the labor market may be needed for inflation to ease back closer to 2%.The minutes stated that “some participants” favored a rate hike in June or could have supported one, suggesting a July hike remains likely because those not in favor of a hike were likely waiting for more incoming data on monetary policy lags and the state of the economy.
It appears some officials wanted a hike, others wanted more data before making a decision. Notably, there isn’t any evidence of real consideration for lower rates yet among Fed decision makers, even though headline inflation has declined sharply. Since the June meeting, economic data has tended to support a July hike, though we do have the important
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