U.S. gross domestic product grew at an estimated annual rate of 1.1% in the first quarter—after 2.6% growth in the third quarter—coming in lower than the 2% economists expected.
U.S. gross domestic product grew at an estimated annual rate of 1.1% in the first quarter—after 2.6% growth in the third quarter—coming in lower than the 2% economists expected, the Bureau of Economic AnalysisThe increase primarily reflected increases in consumer spending, exports and government spending that were partly offset by declines in business investments and the housing market, the government said.
In an email, Chris Zaccarelli of Independent Advisor Alliance called the GDP data “the worst of both worlds,” with growth down more than expected and the PCE Price Index, a measure of prices that consumers pay for goods and services, also unexpectedly climbing . The job market and consumer spending have held up “remarkably well” despite the Federal Reserve aggressively raising rates over the past year, but the “economy is slowing and inflation is not anywhere near” the central bank’s longtime 2% target, says Zaccarelli, cautioning the rate hikes will only lead to a deeper slowdown if prices don’t moderate.
Pantheon Macro chief economist Ian Shepherdson isn’t much more optimistic: He notes overall growth was buoyed by much warmer-than-usual weather in January and February and a one-time cost of livingFurther, the outlook for business investments has weakened in recent weeks—suggesting the economy is likely to shrink outright in the second and third quarters, Shepherdson projects, warning clients: “Recession incoming.
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