MLB odds, predictions, and picks for Tampa Bay Rays at Minnesota Twins on September 13. MLB free pick for Rays-Twins.
Keuchel hasn't pitched poorly since being signed with the Twins in July. He's coming off a solid five-inning, three-hit victory at home against the New York Mets this past Friday. He fanned six and walked a pair but didn't serve up any home runs, and the Twins won 5-2.
It's not going to be easy for Keuchel this afternoon because Tampa Bay has one of the best offenses in baseball, at least on paper. However, it has a more challenging time with lefties, as its sixth-best wRC+ tells us. The strikeouts rise, the walks go down, and the Rays' lumber doesn't have the same sting against lefties as they do against righthanded pitching.
Minnesota backs Keuchel with nearly 5.5 runs of support per start, and this afternoon, the Twinkies face a rookie pitcher issuing 4.5 free passes per nine frames on the bump.has made a pair of starts since returning to the show. He's struck out a dozen over the 11 1/3 innings since his return, walked seven, and served up three bombs in his last start against Seattle.
The Twins have the highest walk rate in baseball against righties, but they also have the highest strikeout rate. They have the fourth-highest ISO and create the third-most runs against righties, and the Minnesota bats are a terrible matchup for Bradley at Target Field today. Finally, Target Field has been good to the Twins. They are 43-31 on the season, facing a rookie with a high walk rate and known to serve up the long ball. Tampa Bay also has a winning away record, but not when Bradley takes the hill. It won't be pretty, but let's back Keuchel and the Twins today.
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