Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the move was tantamount to a “gas war.”
He also said that Germany must reduce its gas consumption, noting"we're working on that." He said that in a scenario of low supplies, gas for industries will be reduced before private residences or critical infrastructure such as hospitals.
Unless the situation dramatically changes, analysts are predicting a difficult winter ahead for the continent. It noted that euro zone real GDP growth is projected to slow from 5.4% in 2021 to 2.5% in 2022 and 1.2% in 2023, before improving to 2.0% in 2024. "Cutting consumption can only do so much. Fundamentally, there is huge demand for natural gas and especially liquid natural gas in Europe. Rationing, which will especially impact energy intensive industries like car makers, chemical companies and cryptocurrency mining, can't be ruled out," Simon Tucker, global head of energy, utilities and resources at Infosys Consulting, said in emailed comments Tuesday.
The possibility of a recession in Europe now seems"clear-cut," Citi economists and strategists said in a note Tuesday, with Russia's decision to cut gas flows again likely to have"the consequence of pushing Europe into a deeper recession." "It's a bit confusing as to whether this will be a short restriction of supply while the repaired turbine makes its way back online or whether the paperwork will never quite be resolved, and we live with only 20% supplies for a considerable time," Deutsche Bank analysts led by Jim Reid said in a note Tuesday, adding that Russia was likely looking for clearer guarantees on future sanctions exemptions for maintenance of NS1 and related issues.
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