Bitcoin risks a fall to its strong support near $25,000 and that could cause a sell-off in select altcoins.
If they can pull it off, it will be a major sentiment booster as October generally favors the buyers. According to CoinGlass data, Bitcoin has seen a negative monthly close in October only on two occasions, in 2014 and 2018. However, Bitcoin bulls will find it difficult to maintain the momentum if macroeconomic headwinds persist.Another risk to the cryptocurrency recovery may come from the strength in the greenback, which has risen for ten straight weeks, its longest winning streak since 2014.
Will the U.S. dollar extend its gains or witness a short-term correction? Can Bitcoin bulls hold off the bear pressure in the last week of September? Let’s analyze the charts to find out.The S&P 500 Index turned down sharply from the downtrend line and broke below the moving averages on Sep. 15. This started a downward move, which has reached the crucial support at 4,325.
If bulls want to prevent the fall, they will have to quickly drive the price above the 20-day EMA. That could attract further buying and the bulls will then attempt to kick the price above the downtrend line. If they manage to do that, the index has a good chance of retesting the local high at 4,607.The U.S. dollar index bounced off the 20-day EMA on Sep. 20, indicating that the sentiment remains positive and traders are buying on dips.The up-move is likely to hit a wall at 106.
Sellers will have to yank the price back below the 20-day EMA if they want to weaken the bullish momentum. The index could then drop to 104.40 and later to the 50-day simple moving average .The uncertainty from the inside-day candlestick pattern on Sep. 22 and 23 resolved to the downside on Sep. 24. This suggests that the bears have asserted their supremacy.The sellers will try to strengthen their position further by pulling the price to the solid support at $24,800.
Time is running out for the bulls. If they want to start a meaningful recovery, they will have to push and sustain the price above the moving averages. That will open the doors for a retest of the overhead resistance at $28,143.
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