The trade war between America and China will roil the global economy in 2020
Yet if a worldwide slump happens in 2020 it may fall into that category—because it will have been caused primarily by the trade barriers erected between China and America.
History offers little guidance as to what a trade-war recession looks like, or what the right policy response is. Nor, it seems, is economic theory much use. It predicts that tariffs, like all supply-side disruptions, will be inflationary. In fact the most visible effects of the trade war to date have been declining business confidence, a global manufacturing slump and tepid investment. Inflation expectations have been falling, as have long-term interest rates.
Turnover among top global officials is a further source of uncertainty. Christine Lagarde is taking over at the ECB. Though she shares the doveishness of her predecessor, Mario Draghi, she will struggle to hold together the central bank’s governing council as its northern members become ever more agitated by negative rates and bond-buying. Britain is due a new Bank of England governor to replace Mark Carney.
Either way, American monetary policy will enter a period of flux. In 2020 the Fed will finish a review of its monetary-policy framework. It will probably commit to targeting 2% inflation on average over the economic cycle as a whole, rather than all the time. Tolerating inflation overshoots after a downturn should allow it to fight a slump more aggressively.
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